Fed hike contract shows largest gap in Polymarket and Kalshi comparison

Polymarket and Kalshi prices differed by an average of 1.0 point across 50 matched outcomes on November 5, according to PolymarketTrader. Its comparison covered 8 events listed on both venues.

December Fed decision leads the divergence

The largest difference involved the December 2026 Fed decision. A 25 basis point hike was priced at 77.5 percent on Polymarket, compared with 80.5 percent on Kalshi, according to PolymarketTrader.

That puts the gap for that outcome at 3.0 percentage points, with Kalshi assigning the higher price. The difference was three times the reported average across the 50 matched outcomes.

Scope of the comparison

The comparison was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 1:45 AM ET. The supplied summary does not identify the remaining matched events or provide their individual prices, limiting any assessment of how broadly the differences were distributed.

What it means for prediction markets

• The reported average indicates relatively close pricing across the matched outcomes, but the Fed contract shows that individual gaps could be larger.
• For the December 2026 Fed decision, the two venues priced the same stated outcome differently; neither price alone establishes which assessment will prove correct.
• The supplied summary does not include liquidity, trading costs or settlement terms, so the price gap alone is insufficient to establish an executable cross-venue opportunity.