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Large prediction bets favor Democrats as small trades dominate activity

The Wall Street Journal reported that most trades on Kalshi were under 10 dollars, with Polymarket bets even smaller, while large trades mostly favored Democrats. Kalshi said total volume on its platform this cycle eclipsed 2.5 billion dollars.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Talos research found that about 90 percent of prediction-market bets above 10,000 dollars went to Democrats through November 2.

Trade size reveals a split

The distribution of those large bets contrasted with the typical transaction on Kalshi. Most trades on that platform were under 10 dollars, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Polymarket bets were even smaller, the newspaper reported. Those findings distinguish the market’s many small transactions from the larger bets that mostly favored Democrats.

Kalshi said total volume on its platform this cycle eclipsed 2.5 billion dollars. That aggregate volume figure is separate from the Talos finding about the direction of bets above 10,000 dollars.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The about 90 percent figure describes bets above 10,000 dollars through November 2—not all prediction-market activity or Democrats’ probability of winning.
  • Small trades dominated Kalshi’s transaction count, while larger bets showed a Democratic preference. Trade size therefore matters when interpreting market participation.
  • Kalshi’s cycle volume measures activity, not the number of distinct bettors or their political preferences.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Wall Street Journal
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