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Polymarket pricing puts Bitcoin’s $82,500 November threshold at 80%

MarketMaster's November Bitcoin board prices reaching 82,500 dollars as the most likely outcome at 80 cents, up 39 points, with reaching 85,000 dollars next at 56 cents. Reaching 87,500 dollars is priced at 38 cents.

According to MarketMaster, Polymarket’s November Bitcoin board prices the contract on Bitcoin reaching $82,500 at 80 cents, making it the most likely outcome on the board.

That price represents an implied probability of 80% and is up 39 points, according to the update published Nov 5, 2026, at 1:45 AM ET.

Higher thresholds carry lower prices

The contract on Bitcoin reaching $85,000 in November is next at 56 cents, according to MarketMaster. That places its implied probability at 56%, below the $82,500 threshold.

The $87,500 contract trades at 38 cents, implying a 38% probability. Across the three reported levels, prices decline as the Bitcoin target increases.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The $82,500 contract’s 39-point rise marks a substantial repricing toward that November outcome.
  • The 80-cent, 56-cent and 38-cent prices distinguish expectations for three separate thresholds; they are not mutually exclusive outcomes.
  • The supplied summary does not include trading volume, liquidity or settlement rules, limiting assessment of the price move and how each threshold is determined.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    MarketMaster
    Publisher
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