Talarico leads Texas Senate betting as polling signals a toss-up

James Talarico is priced at 71 percent against Ken Paxton at 30 percent in Polymarket’s Texas Senate market, according to RG. The market has recorded $8.4 million in trading ahead of the November 3 vote.

RG’s report, published Nov 1, 2026, at 5:45 AM ET, puts Talarico’s gain over the preceding 24 hours at two percentage points.

Market confidence outpaces the polling margin

The market’s tilt toward Talarico contrasts with a tighter polling picture. A 61-poll average cited by RG shows the race at 49.2 percent to 47.1 percent, with a toss-up rating.

Those figures measure different things: election-market prices express expectations about who will win, while polling percentages describe voter support. The gap nevertheless highlights how much more decisively the market favors Talarico than the toss-up designation suggests.

Fundraising and early voting frame the final stretch

Talarico has raised $68.6 million, compared with Paxton’s $19.5 million, according to RG. That gives Talarico a substantial fundraising advantage heading into the vote.

More than 4.5 million Texans had voted early by October 26, the report says. The supplied figures do not indicate how those ballots divide between the candidates.

What it means for prediction markets

• A clear favorite, not a settled outcome: Talarico’s 71 percent price stands alongside a polling average rated a toss-up.
• Recent momentum favors Talarico: His two-point rise over 24 hours marks a shift in market expectations before November 3.
• Context is not confirmation: Fundraising totals and early-voting volume provide background, but neither establishes the election result.