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Iran leadership contract draws substantial trading despite low implied odds

World Monitor's tracked board prices an Iran leadership change by December 31 at 13.5 percent on Polymarket, with 28.5 million dollars traded ahead of its January 1, 2027 close. The board tracks 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets with 494 million dollars in combined volume.

According to World Monitor, a Polymarket contract on an Iran leadership change by December 31 is priced at 13.5 percent, with 28.5 million dollars traded.

The figures were published on Nov 1, 2026, at 7:00 AM ET. They provide a snapshot of market pricing, rather than confirmation that a leadership change will occur.

Deadline and trading context

The contract closes on January 1, 2027, following its December 31 event deadline. The supplied summary does not specify the criteria used to determine what qualifies as a leadership change.

World Monitor’s tracked board covers 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi, with 494 million dollars in combined volume. The Iran contract’s trading total sits within that broader monitored activity.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 13.5 percent price places a leadership change by December 31 on the lower-probability side of the market’s outlook.
  • The 28.5 million dollars traded measures activity, not certainty about the outcome.
  • The event deadline and January 1, 2027 close are distinct dates. Without the contract’s resolution criteria, the summary alone cannot establish which developments would qualify.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    World Monitor
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
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