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Polymarket puts year-end US-Iran nuclear agreement odds at 13.5 percent

World Monitor's live board, updated November 1, prices a final US-Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2026 at 13.5 percent on Polymarket. The market sits alongside other heavily traded Iran questions, including US invasion odds and Iranian leadership markets.

Polymarket prices a final US-Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2026 at 13.5 percent, according to World Monitor’s live board, updated November 1.

The market has recorded 20.9 million dollars in trading, according to World Monitor. That combines substantial trading activity with a price indicating that an agreement before the deadline remains the less likely outcome.

Nuclear deadline sits within broader Iran trading

World Monitor’s report, published Nov 1, 2026 · 7:00 AM ET, places the nuclear agreement contract alongside other heavily traded Iran questions. Those include markets on US invasion odds and Iranian leadership.

The supplied summary does not give prices or trading volumes for those neighboring markets. It also provides no details about negotiations or the criteria used to determine whether a final nuclear deal qualifies for settlement.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 13.5 percent price reflects market expectations for a final deal by December 31, 2026, rather than diplomatic progress more broadly.
  • The 20.9 million dollars traded measures activity, not certainty about the outcome.
  • Related invasion and leadership markets offer a broader set of Iran-linked questions, but the available information does not establish how their pricing compares with the nuclear deal contract.
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Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
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