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Texas Senate contest leads Kalshi race trading on Election Day

Action Network reports Kalshi's Texas Senate market, James Talarico against Ken Paxton in the open seat, has drawn more than 88 million dollars in volume as of Election Day morning, the most of any single race in the country. Kalshi lists the deepest midterm menu of the US venues, including margin of victory, county level and turnout markets alongside the race winners.

According to Action Network, Kalshi’s market on the Texas Senate contest had attracted more than 88 million dollars in trading volume as of Election Day morning, making it the most heavily traded single race in the country.

The open-seat contest pits James Talarico against Ken Paxton. The volume figure was reported on Nov 3, 2026, in an update published at 11:45 AM ET.

Trading extends beyond the winner

According to Action Network, Kalshi offers the deepest midterm market menu among US venues. Alongside contracts on race winners, its offerings include margin of victory, county level and turnout markets.

That breadth gives prediction-market readers several distinct types of election outcomes to track. The Texas Senate volume figure, however, does not by itself indicate which candidate traders favor or how confidently they expect either candidate to win.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Texas is a focal point: More than 88 million dollars in volume puts the Senate contest ahead of every other single race nationally, according to Action Network.
  • Volume is not a probability: The supplied reporting includes no contract prices or candidate-specific odds, so it does not establish a market-implied favorite.
  • Market scope matters: Winner, margin of victory, county level and turnout contracts address different outcomes; activity in one should not be treated as a signal about all the others.
KalshiSenateElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Action Networkactionnetwork.com
    Publisher
    https://www.actionnetwork.com
    Source URL
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