Republican 2028 odds show largest divergence in matched prediction markets
PolymarketTrader reports that across 10 events matched on both Polymarket and Kalshi on November 3, the widest venue gap is on which party wins the 2028 presidential election, with Republicans at 32.5 percent on Polymarket against 40.5 percent on Kalshi. Across 54 matched outcomes the average gap is 1.1 percentage points.
A comparison of Polymarket and Kalshi found its largest pricing difference in the market for which party wins the 2028 presidential election, according to PolymarketTrader. Republicans stood at 32.5 percent on Polymarket and 40.5 percent on Kalshi.
A standout difference across venues
The comparison covered 10 events matched across both platforms on November 3. PolymarketTrader’s findings were published on Nov 3, 2026, at 12:30 PM ET.
Across 54 matched outcomes, the average gap was 1.1 percentage points. The Republican presidential outcome therefore showed a substantially larger difference than the average in the comparison.
Limits of the comparison
The supplied summary does not identify the other matched events or explain why the presidential-party prices differed. It also provides no information about trading volume, liquidity or contract terms, limiting conclusions about the source of the divergence.
What it means for prediction markets
- Venue choice materially affected the displayed Republican probability in the 2028 presidential-party market: 32.5 percent on Polymarket versus 40.5 percent on Kalshi.
- The largest divergence should not be treated as typical of the comparison; the average across 54 matched outcomes was 1.1 percentage points.
- The figures document a cross-platform difference on November 3, not evidence that either venue’s probability was more accurate.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
- Publisher
- https://polymarket.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to PolymarketTrader”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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