Kalshi’s closest midterm contests cluster in House races at midday

According to Covers’ Election Day round-up, 13 races on Kalshi’s midterm hub remained below a clear-favorite threshold at midday: neither candidate had reached 60%. Of those contests, 11 were House races.

House contests dominate the tightest group

The round-up was updated Nov. 3 at 11:46 AM ET. The accompanying story, published Nov. 3, 2026, at 12:24 PM ET, described those 13 contests as true toss-ups.

Kentucky’s 6th and Montana’s 1st were identified among the late flips. The supplied material does not specify the direction or size of those moves, or provide candidate-level probabilities for either contest.

The count is therefore a snapshot of market uncertainty rather than an election result. It places most of the hub’s closest races in the House, but the available excerpt does not identify all 13 contests or show how their probabilities developed during Election Day.

What it means for prediction markets

• The threshold matters: The reported toss-up category means neither candidate reaches 60%; it does not establish that every race is priced at 50–50.
• House races account for most of the count: Eleven of the 13 qualifying contests concern House seats. That count alone does not establish the probability of either party controlling the chamber.
• Late moves need context: Kentucky’s 6th and Montana’s 1st warrant attention as reported late flips, but the excerpt provides too little detail to assess their magnitude or persistence.