Hormuz normalization odds sit at 10.5 percent amid heavy trading

Polymarket’s contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 was priced at 10.5 percent, with 16.7 million dollars traded, according to World Monitor.

The reading was published on Nov 5, 2026 at 12:30 AM ET. It places the market’s implied likelihood of normalization well below that of the outcome not occurring by the deadline.

Hormuz ranks third in volume

The Hormuz contract was third by trading volume among the 50 markets in World Monitor’s November 5 reading. That ranking shows substantial activity relative to the other markets in the snapshot, despite the low price assigned to normalization.

Nearby geopolitics contracts carried somewhat higher probabilities. According to World Monitor, a NATO and Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 was priced at 12.5 percent, while a Russia and Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026 was also at 12.5 percent.

What it means for prediction markets

• The Hormuz price was 2 percentage points below each of the two other geopolitics contracts, though they concern distinct outcomes.
• The 16.7 million dollars traded and third-place volume ranking measure market activity, not certainty about the result.
• The supplied snapshot contains no price history or resolution criteria, limiting conclusions about momentum or what would qualify as traffic returning to normal.