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Democratic sweep leads congressional pricing as split control trails

RotoWire reports the balance-of-power prices are calculated from the combined four-outcome market across Kalshi and Polymarket, where a price in cents is the market's implied probability, and the reverse split of a Republican House with a Democratic Senate sits at just 1 cent.

A Democratic sweep is priced at 76 cents in the congressional balance-of-power market, ahead of split control at 18 to 19 cents and a Republican sweep at 5 to 6 cents, according to RotoWire.

The figures were published on Nov 3, 2026, at 1:30 PM ET. They provide a snapshot of market expectations rather than an election result.

How the outcomes are priced

According to RotoWire, the prices are calculated from the combined four-outcome market across Kalshi and Polymarket. A price expressed in cents represents the market’s implied probability.

The reverse split—a Republican House alongside a Democratic Senate—is priced at just 1 cent. That makes it the least-favored of the four outcomes, with the Democratic sweep commanding the largest implied probability.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 76-cent Democratic sweep price implies a 76% probability, compared with 5% to 6% for a Republican sweep.
  • The split-control outcomes are priced very differently: 18 to 19 cents for one configuration versus 1 cent for a Republican House and Democratic Senate.
  • These figures reflect a combined calculation across Kalshi and Polymarket, not a separately reported price for each platform.
KalshiPolymarketSenateCongressInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    RotoWirerotowire.com
    Publisher
    https://www.rotowire.com
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