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Van Drew market odds trail forecasts in New Jersey district race

Asbury Park Press reports markets price the South Jersey race far closer than the forecasts, with Decision Desk HQ at 68 percent for Van Drew and other models at 82 to 88 percent, against a final listed poll showing Van Drew ahead 50 to 40 over Zack Mullock. New Jersey polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

Prediction markets put Jeff Van Drew’s chances in New Jersey’s 2nd district below those of forecast models, according to Asbury Park Press. Kalshi prices him at 55 percent and Polymarket at 56 percent.

Markets and models diverge

Those market probabilities contrast with Decision Desk HQ’s 68 percent estimate for Van Drew. Other models put his chances at 82 to 88 percent, according to Asbury Park Press.

The figures leave a substantial gap between the two markets and the forecasts for the South Jersey race. Both platforms favor Van Drew, but their pricing indicates considerably more uncertainty than the models.

Final poll shows Van Drew ahead

The final listed poll has Van Drew leading Zack Mullock 50 to 40, according to Asbury Park Press. That vote-share margin is a different measure from the win probabilities reflected in markets and forecasts.

The reported snapshot was published Nov 3, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. New Jersey polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Kalshi and Polymarket are closely aligned: their Van Drew probabilities differ by just 1 percentage point.
  • Decision Desk HQ’s estimate is 13 percentage points above Kalshi and 12 above Polymarket, highlighting the market-model divide.
  • The final listed poll favors Van Drew, but it does not by itself explain why market probabilities sit below the forecasts. The supplied reporting provides no explanation for that gap.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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