Kalshi’s 2024 election pricing outperformed polling forecasts, new study finds

A new Crane-Strumpf study finds that Kalshi’s 2024 prices outperformed every poll-based forecast across the national race, all seven battleground states and 19 Senate races, according to the supplied report.

A broad comparison, with limited detail

The finding spans both the national contest and state-level races. As described in the report’s headline, the result favors Kalshi’s market prices over polling-based forecasts across each of the listed categories—not simply in one closely watched contest.

The supplied material does not include the study itself, source links or details of its methodology. It therefore leaves unanswered how performance was measured, which forecasts were compared and when Kalshi’s prices were sampled. Those omissions limit how precisely readers can interpret the reported advantage.

The update, published Nov 3, 2026 at 2:24 PM ET, presents the research under an Election Day political focus. Its summary says there was no significant new prediction-platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes, making this a retrospective markets-versus-models story rather than a fresh platform development.

What it means for prediction markets

• The reported evidence favors market pricing: The study’s stated result covers the national race, all seven battleground states and 19 Senate races in 2024.
• Methodology remains essential: Without the underlying study, readers cannot assess the scoring method, comparison set or timing behind the claim.
• The scope is historical: The supplied finding concerns 2024; it does not establish how Kalshi’s prices will perform in the current election.