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Foulkes contracts near certainty as Rhode Island votes for governor

Providence Journal reports the market pricing runs ahead of the final University of New Hampshire poll released November 1, which put Foulkes at 55 percent in the contested three-way race for governor. Rhode Island polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. today.

Election Day pricing places Foulkes at 98 percent on Kalshi and 97 percent on Polymarket in Rhode Island’s contested three-way race for governor, according to the Providence Journal.

The report, published Nov 3, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET, puts both platforms close to certainty about a Foulkes victory while voting remains underway.

Market confidence and polling measure different things

According to the Providence Journal, market pricing is running ahead of the final University of New Hampshire poll, released November 1, which put Foulkes at 55 percent.

Those percentages are not directly comparable: the poll measures voter support, while the market prices reflect expectations of winning. A candidate’s share of support need not match the market’s assessment of the likelihood of victory.

Voting remains open

Rhode Island polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. today, according to the Providence Journal. The reported market prices therefore represent expectations before voting ends, not a confirmed election result.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Kalshi’s 98 percent and Polymarket’s 97 percent pricing show similarly strong expectations for Foulkes, with a one-percentage-point gap between platforms.
  • The November 1 poll’s 55 percent figure provides a measure of support, not a competing estimate of the probability of victory.
  • With polls open until 8 p.m., the near-certain pricing still precedes the outcome.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Providence Journal
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