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Iowa winner and Democratic House strength divide Sikt from markets

Sikt Intelligence reports its round 13 middle estimates put Republican Ashley Hinson ahead by 1.2 points in Iowa while Kalshi margin markets put Democrat Josh Turek ahead by 0.3 points, with Alaska at Peltola by 1.0 point in its model against 2.6 points in the market. Its seat estimates sit below the markets on the House, at 230 Democratic seats against a market mark of 241, and a House popular vote lead of 8.2 points against 9.8 points in the market.

Sikt Intelligence’s round 13 middle estimates differ from market pricing on both the Iowa winner and the scale of Democratic strength in the House, according to its Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 PM ET report.

Iowa estimates point to opposite winners

In Iowa, Sikt Intelligence puts Republican Ashley Hinson ahead by 1.2 points. Kalshi margin markets instead put Democrat Josh Turek ahead by 0.3 points, according to Sikt Intelligence.

Alaska presents a narrower disagreement: Sikt Intelligence’s model gives Peltola a 1.0-point lead, compared with 2.6 points in the market. Both estimates favor Peltola, but the market assigns a larger margin.

House markets imply stronger Democratic results

Sikt Intelligence estimates 230 Democratic House seats, below the market mark of 241. The difference concerns the size of the Democratic seat total rather than its direction relative to the market.

The same pattern appears in the House popular vote. Sikt Intelligence estimates a Democratic lead of 8.2 points, while the market puts that lead at 9.8 points.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Iowa is a winner-level disagreement: Sikt Intelligence favors Hinson, while Kalshi margin markets favor Turek.
  • Alaska is a margin disagreement: Both favor Peltola, with the market implying a stronger result.
  • House pricing is more favorable to Democrats: Market marks exceed Sikt Intelligence’s estimates for both Democratic seats and the party’s popular-vote lead.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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