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Democratic Senate odds climb as markets price in a wider majority

Polyguana reports its live midterm board at 8:25 p.m. ET puts Democrats at 98 percent on Polymarket and 97 percent on Kalshi to take the Senate, up from 91 percent and 90 percent in the 8:15 p.m. read, with 24.9 million dollars traded on the Senate control market. Expected seats now sit at 54.8 Democratic against 44.2 Republican.

According to Polyguana, Democrats’ chances of taking Senate control reached 98 percent on Polymarket and 97 percent on Kalshi at 8:25 p.m. ET on Nov 3, 2026.

The update, published at 8:30 PM ET, showed both platforms moving further toward a Democratic outcome over the preceding ten minutes.

Senate pricing strengthens across both platforms

At 8:15 p.m., the probabilities had stood at 91 percent on Polymarket and 90 percent on Kalshi, according to Polyguana. Each platform therefore registered a seven-percentage-point increase by the latest reading.

Polyguana’s live midterm board also put expected seats at 54.8 Democratic and 44.2 Republican. Those figures represent expectations rather than a confirmed allocation of Senate seats.

Reported trading volume on the Senate control market totaled 24.9 million dollars. The summary did not provide a platform-by-platform breakdown of that volume.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The two platforms moved together: Both recorded seven-percentage-point gains, with Polymarket remaining one percentage point above Kalshi.
  • Control and seat expectations offer distinct signals: The control probabilities strongly favored Democrats, while the expected-seat figures pointed to a Democratic majority beyond the minimum needed for control.
  • Pricing is not a result: The 8:25 p.m. ET snapshot captures market expectations, not confirmation of the election outcome.
KalshiPolymarketSenateMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Polyguana
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