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Turek reaches 85 percent on Kalshi before Iowa polls close

Iowa was priced near even money on Kalshi earlier in the evening, but the live board now puts Democrat Josh Turek at 85 percent in the race for the retiring Joni Ernst's seat, well before the state's 10 p.m. ET poll close.

Democrat Josh Turek’s pricing on Kalshi reached 85 percent in Iowa’s open-seat Senate contest, according to Polyguana, a sharp shift from a race priced near even money earlier in the evening.

Turek is competing for the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Joni Ernst. The market move made him the clear favorite on the live board, though that pricing is not an election result.

A substantial move before voting ends

Polyguana’s update, published Nov 3, 2026 at 8:45 PM ET, placed the repricing well ahead of Iowa’s 10 p.m. ET poll close.

The supplied summary does not identify what drove the change or provide trading-volume information. It establishes a significant shift in market expectations, but offers no basis for assessing how broadly supported that move was.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Expectations changed quickly: The move from near even money to 85 percent marked a substantial tilt toward Turek within the evening.
  • Timing matters: The quoted probability preceded Iowa’s poll close and should not be confused with a confirmed outcome.
  • Context is limited: Without volume information or an identified catalyst, the update alone cannot establish the strength or durability of the repricing.
KalshiSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Polyguana
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