Alaska leads gaps between Sikt election forecasts and market odds

Sikt Intelligence’s November 2 Midterm Bench forecast gives Democrats lower probabilities than prediction markets for both House and Senate control. Its largest listed divergence concerns Mary Peltola in Alaska, according to Sikt Intelligence.

Congressional forecasts fall below market pricing

For the House, Sikt assigns Democrats a 90 percent probability, compared with 93 percent on Kalshi and 94 percent on Polymarket. That places the forecast 3 percentage points below Kalshi and 4 points below Polymarket.

The Senate comparison follows the same pattern. Sikt puts Democrats at 71 percent, while Kalshi stands at 74 percent and Polymarket at 76 percent—differences of 3 and 5 percentage points, respectively.

Alaska presents the largest listed divergence

Sikt gives Mary Peltola a 53 percent probability in Alaska, against a market average of 72 percent. The 19 percentage-point difference is the widest among the comparisons listed by Sikt Intelligence.

That Alaska gap will be graded after the results, according to Sikt Intelligence. For now, the figures show a substantially closer assessment from Sikt than the market average, rather than a disagreement over which outcome is more likely.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction aligns, confidence differs: Sikt and the cited markets all place Democrats above 50 percent for House and Senate control, but market probabilities are higher.
• Alaska is the standout comparison: The 19-point Peltola gap is considerably larger than the listed congressional-control differences.
• Results remain the test: The Alaska assessment is awaiting post-results grading; the current divergence alone does not establish which estimate is better.