Midterm betting tops $1.4 billion as election odds gain media reach

More than 1.4 billion dollars has been wagered on midterm markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, according to the Center for Democracy and Technology (CDT). Its analysis says prediction markets are changing the environment surrounding elections.

Media connections expand the audience

CDT identifies Kalshi partnerships with CNN, CNBC and CBS, alongside Polymarket’s integration into Substack. Those connections put election wagering platforms in contact with audiences beyond their own services.

The analysis brings together two aspects of prediction markets’ election presence: the amount wagered and their connections to media outlets and publishing platforms. The summary does not break down the wagering total between Kalshi and Polymarket.

A sharp move in a Texas race

CDT cites the Texas Railroad Commissioner race as an example of shifting market odds. One candidate’s implied probability dropped from 73 percent to 42 percent over ten days in September.

That represents a 31-percentage-point decline. The supplied summary does not identify the candidate or explain what drove the movement, limiting what readers can conclude about the change.

What it means for prediction markets

• Scale and visibility are distinct signals: CDT’s wagering total measures betting activity, while the media partnerships and Substack integration indicate broader distribution. Neither establishes forecasting accuracy.
• Individual contracts can move substantially: The Texas Railroad Commissioner example shows a large probability adjustment within ten days, but the summary provides no basis for attributing its cause.
• Key detail remains unavailable: Without a platform-level breakdown or further context on the Texas race, the reported figures offer a limited view of how activity is distributed across midterm markets.