Polymarket and Kalshi align closely, with presidential party pricing diverging
PolymarketTrader's November 4 side-by-side comparison matched 8 events listed on both exchanges across 50 outcomes and found an average price gap of 0.9 percentage points. The widest gap is on which party wins the 2028 presidential election, with Republicans at 32.5 percent on Polymarket against 37.5 percent on Kalshi, while Democrats sit at 67.5 percent and 63.5 percent respectively.
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