Kalshi leads prediction markets to another monthly trading record
October volume rose about 53.9 percent from September's record across 642.9 million transactions, with Kalshi at 98.2 billion dollars and Polymarket at 20.2 billion dollars. Midterm election markets topped 1.4 billion dollars and crypto contracts topped 3 billion dollars for two straight weeks.
October prediction-market volume reached 123.3 billion dollars, up about 53.9 percent from September’s record, according to TokenPost. The month recorded 642.9 million transactions.
Kalshi accounts for most activity
Kalshi generated 98.2 billion dollars in October volume, accounting for about 80 percent of the total, according to TokenPost. Polymarket recorded 20.2 billion dollars.
The figures show a substantial gap between the two platforms, with Kalshi responsible for the clear majority of reported monthly trading volume.
Election and crypto contracts draw trading
Midterm election markets topped 1.4 billion dollars in volume, according to TokenPost. That activity formed part of a month in which overall prediction-market trading surpassed September’s record.
Crypto contracts separately topped 3 billion dollars for two straight weeks. The consecutive weekly readings show that activity above that threshold was sustained beyond a single week.
What it means for prediction markets
- Platform concentration: Kalshi’s roughly 80 percent share means the aggregate October figure largely reflects activity on that platform.
- A higher volume benchmark: October’s 123.3 billion dollars establishes a new comparison point after growth of about 53.9 percent from September’s record.
- Volume is not probability: The election and crypto figures measure trading activity; they do not establish which outcomes traders considered more likely.
Sources & attribution
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