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Midterm market favorites deliver 479 wins as Polymarket edges Kalshi

Before the first polls closed, Kalshi priced Democrats at 93.3 percent for the House and 75.0 percent for the Senate, against Polymarket at 94.5 percent and 75.5 percent, and Democrats won both chambers. Polymarket's Brier scores were 0.0030 on the House and 0.0600 on the Senate, against Kalshi at 0.0045 and 0.0625.

Pre-election favorites won 479 of 487 resolved midterm races, a 98 percent hit rate, according to RotoWire. Democrats won both the House and the Senate, matching the party favored to control each chamber on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Chamber forecasts favored Democrats

Before the first polls closed, Kalshi put Democrats’ probability of winning the House at 93.3 percent, compared with 94.5 percent on Polymarket, according to RotoWire.

The Senate prices reflected less certainty. Kalshi assigned Democrats a 75.0 percent chance of winning control, while Polymarket’s probability stood at 75.5 percent.

Polymarket records lower Brier scores

RotoWire reported House Brier scores of 0.0030 for Polymarket and 0.0045 for Kalshi. For the Senate, the scores were 0.0600 and 0.0625, respectively, giving Polymarket slightly better results for both chambers.

The figures were reported on Nov 4, 2026, at 9:30 PM ET. The race-level tally covers 487 resolved contests; the chamber-level scores separately compare the two platforms’ forecasts for House and Senate control.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 98 percent hit rate describes how often pre-election favorites won among resolved races, rather than a comparison of the platforms’ chamber-level probabilities.
  • Both platforms favored the eventual winner in each chamber, with greater confidence in Democratic control of the House than the Senate.
  • Polymarket assigned Democrats slightly higher probabilities in both chambers and finished with slightly better Brier scores on those outcomes.
KalshiPolymarketSenateElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    RotoWirerotowire.com
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    https://www.rotowire.com
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