Polymarket claims 31-minute median lead in ten midterm race projections

Polymarket said its election-night projections for 10 key midterm races preceded those of CNN, Fox News and the Associated Press by a median of 31 minutes, according to CNBC reporting carried by Morning Top News.

The report, published Nov 4, 2026, at 10:00 PM ET, presents that timing advantage as Polymarket’s claim. The supplied summary does not identify the races or provide individual projection times.

Different signals for election calls

Kalshi also described how it made its election calls. Spokesperson Jack Such said the platform called races once a candidate’s odds exceeded 99 percent and trading in the opposing candidate dried up, according to the same reporting.

Those accounts address different aspects of election-night performance: Polymarket highlighted its timing relative to news organizations, while Kalshi outlined its calling criteria. The supplied material does not give a comparable timing measure for Kalshi or specify Polymarket’s projection threshold.

What it means for prediction markets

• Polymarket’s claimed 31-minute median advantage applies to the 10 key races cited, not necessarily to every midterm contest.
• Kalshi’s stated approach combined odds above 99 percent with trading activity in the opposing candidate; the probability threshold alone was not its full criterion.
• Earlier projections and accurate projections are separate measures. The supplied summary does not include a race-by-race accuracy assessment or enough detail to independently verify the timing comparison.