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Bitcoin window results show near-even split in Polymarket US sample

PredictionMarketPicks logged every Polymarket US five-minute Bitcoin window from October 22 to November 4, with Up settling 1,898 times and Down 1,908 times, a split it says cannot be told apart from an even coin flip. The longest Up run was 12 windows, the median move was 4.5 basis points, and 54.1 percent of windows moved 5 basis points or less.

Polymarket US five-minute Bitcoin markets settled Up in 49.9 percent of 3,806 logged windows, according to PredictionMarketPicks. Its tally put Up at 1,898 settlements and Down at 1,908—a difference of 10 windows.

A balanced tally with short-term streaks

PredictionMarketPicks said it logged every window from October 22 to November 4. The findings were published on Nov 4, 2026, at 10:15 PM ET.

The outlet described the settlement split as indistinguishable from an even coin flip. That assessment concerns the observed balance between Up and Down; it does not establish what any subsequent window will deliver.

The longest consecutive Up sequence reached 12 windows. That streak occurred within a sample whose overall results remained almost evenly divided.

Small moves dominated

The median Bitcoin move across the logged windows was 4.5 basis points, according to PredictionMarketPicks. Moves of 5 basis points or less accounted for 54.1 percent of the sample.

Together, those figures describe a period in which modest price changes were common, even as each window produced a directional settlement.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Historical direction was nearly balanced: The 1,898 Up and 1,908 Down outcomes provide a sample benchmark, not a forecast for the next settlement.
  • Streaks and aggregate balance coexisted: The 12-window Up run did not translate into an overall Up majority.
  • Settlement direction is only part of the picture: The summary provides outcomes and move sizes, but no contract prices or trading costs from which to assess returns.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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