Polymarket leader 0xA2 posts $917,000 gain with Alaska still in play

Polymarket trader 0xA2 reached the top of the daily leaderboard with $917,000 in profit after the Democratic sweep, according to Decrypt. Most of those gains remain unrealized, leaving Alaska central to the position’s eventual outcome.

A Senate wager drives the gains

According to Decrypt’s Nov 4, 2026 report, published at 8:30 PM ET, the trader wagered $609,644 at 36 percent odds that Republicans would win no Senate swing states.

That position is now valued at about $1.48 million after the market’s implied probability rose to 87 percent. The move accounts for the bulk of the trader’s gains, but the quoted valuation is not the same as realized profit.

Alaska remains the unresolved exposure

Polymarket was pricing a 14 percent chance of an Alaska upset, according to Decrypt. With most of 0xA2’s gains still riding on Alaska, that remaining uncertainty matters to how much of the leaderboard profit ultimately holds.

The trader also recorded $106,115 in realized profit on the Texas Senate race. That banked gain stands apart from the larger, mostly unrealized Senate position.

What it means for prediction markets

• Leaderboard profit is not necessarily settled profit. The $917,000 total includes gains that remain exposed to an unresolved outcome.
• The probability shift drove a substantial valuation change. The no-Republican-swing-state-win position moved from 36 percent odds to 87 percent, lifting its value to about $1.48 million.
• Alaska remains material. The market’s 14 percent upset probability represents continuing uncertainty for the trader’s largest source of gains.