Colom’s market odds surge while Mississippi Senate result remains unsettled

Mississippi’s Senate race remained unresolved, with fewer than 100 votes between Scott Colom and Cindy Hyde-Smith, according to The Prediction Network’s update published Nov 4, 2026, at 9:30 PM ET. Despite that narrow margin, prediction markets strongly favored Colom.

Markets shift sharply toward Colom

Colom’s implied probability climbed from about 13 percent before the vote to about 89 percent on Kalshi and about 90 percent on Polymarket US, according to The Prediction Network.

The outlet described the repricing as one of the biggest moves of the cycle. The market readings nevertheless remained distinct from a confirmed election outcome: the race was still open at the time of the update.

Ballot deadlines leave the result pending

Mail ballots can arrive up to five business days after Election Day, according to The Prediction Network. That timetable leaves a window for ballots to arrive while fewer than 100 votes separate the candidates.

Mississippi has no recount law, and counties certify by November 13. Those procedural details are important context for following an unresolved contest alongside market prices that already heavily favor one candidate.

What it means for prediction markets

• Price is not confirmation: Colom’s roughly 89 percent probability on Kalshi and 90 percent on Polymarket US reflect market expectations, not a declared result.
• The remaining ballot window matters: With fewer than 100 votes separating the candidates, mail-ballot arrivals are a key development to monitor.
• Certification provides a procedural milestone: Counties certify by November 13, while Mississippi’s lack of a recount law is relevant to how readers assess the unresolved race.