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Peltola edges ahead in Alaska as markets await ranked-choice count

Action Network reports the Alaska Senate count had Mary Peltola ahead 102,701 to 102,075 after Dan Sullivan led for part of the evening, and the market may not resolve until the ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18. Kalshi's race market had 15,258,615 dollars in volume, with certification targeted for November 25.

Mary Peltola held a 626-vote advantage over Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s Senate race with 74.3 percent counted, according to Action Network. Its update, published Nov 4, 2026 · 9:15 PM ET, put Peltola at 102,701 votes and Sullivan at 102,075.

Sullivan had been ahead for part of the evening before Peltola moved into the lead, according to Action Network. The reported tally remained incomplete.

Market prices and the counting calendar

Action Network reported Polymarket pricing at 87 cents and Kalshi pricing at 88 cents alongside Peltola’s lead. Kalshi’s race market had recorded 15,258,615 dollars in volume.

The market may remain unresolved until the ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18, according to Action Network. Certification is targeted for November 25, leaving a separate milestone beyond that tabulation.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Peltola’s 626-vote lead came with 74.3 percent counted, so the reported advantage was not a final result.
  • The 87-cent Polymarket price and 88-cent Kalshi price reflected market expectations, not confirmation of the outcome.
  • November 18 is the scheduled ranked-choice tabulation date and a potential resolution milestone; November 25 is the certification target. Neither date alone establishes when each platform will settle its market.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Action Networkactionnetwork.com
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    https://www.actionnetwork.com
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