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Democratic Senate odds gain ground as Polymarket traders price Election Day

UNILAD Tech reports Polymarket's price on Democrats taking the Senate rose from about 66.5 percent on October 27 to about 76.5 percent on November 3, including a rise of about five points in the final 24 hours before voting. Over the same week the House price rose from about 91.5 percent to 94.5 percent.

According to UNILAD Tech, Polymarket’s price for Democrats taking the Senate increased from about 66.5 percent on October 27 to about 76.5 percent on November 3, 2026, Election Day.

The roughly 10-percentage-point move over that week included an increase of about five points in the final 24 hours before voting.

Senate pricing moves more sharply than House

Over the same week, the House price increased from about 91.5 percent to 94.5 percent, according to UNILAD Tech. That represents a rise of about three percentage points.

The Senate therefore recorded the larger weekly increase, while the House price remained higher. The figures describe market pricing, not confirmed election outcomes.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Late movement mattered: About half of the Senate’s weekly increase came in the final 24 hours before voting.
  • The chambers showed different trajectories: Senate pricing rose by roughly 10 percentage points, compared with about three points for the House.
  • Prices are not results: The reported moves indicate changing market expectations; the supplied reporting does not establish what drove them.
PolymarketSenateElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    UNILAD Tech
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