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Democratic control prices rise in Polymarket’s Senate and House markets

Vultax, which prices 506 midterm races on Polymarket across 35 Senate, 36 governor and 435 House contests, shows Democratic Senate control rising from 45 percent to 72 percent over the last 90 days, up 9 points in 30 days. Its House control line rose from 86 percent to 95 percent over the same 90 days.

According to Vultax, Polymarket’s price for Democratic Senate control increased from 45 percent to 72 percent over the last 90 days. The summary, published Nov 1, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET, also shows an increase in the House control price.

Senate pricing shifts toward Democrats

The Senate control line gained 9 points in the last 30 days, according to Vultax. That places part of the broader 90-day rise within the most recent month, rather than entirely earlier in the period.

Vultax prices 506 midterm races on Polymarket. Its coverage spans 35 Senate contests, 36 governor contests and 435 House contests.

House control price reaches 95 percent

The Democratic House control line rose from 86 percent to 95 percent over the same 90 days, according to Vultax. House control therefore remained priced above Senate control at both ends of the reported period.

The supplied summary provides aggregate control prices but no individual race movements or explanation for the changes. It does not identify which contests contributed to the shifts.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Both chamber-control lines moved toward Democratic control over the reported 90-day window, with the Senate showing the larger change.
  • The Senate’s 9-point increase over 30 days indicates that the repricing continued during the latest month.
  • These figures describe market pricing, not confirmed election outcomes. The summary does not include trading volume or liquidity data with which to assess the moves.
PolymarketSenateMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    Vultax
    Publisher
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