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Election upsets sharpen scrutiny of prediction markets ahead of midterms

The Wall Street Journal says elections in Brazil, Serbia and Wisconsin that polled as high as 90 percent for one candidate were upset by long shots, and Kalshi and Polymarket traders still disagree on the next Israeli prime minister three days after polls closed. It says Polymarket lists some 4,300 political markets heading into Tuesday's midterms.

Prediction markets approach Tuesday’s midterms with recent election surprises drawing attention to their accuracy, according to The Wall Street Journal. The outlet points to results in Brazil, Serbia and Wisconsin, alongside continuing disagreement over Israel’s next prime minister.

Favorites fall short

In the Brazil, Serbia and Wisconsin elections highlighted by the Journal, candidates given chances as high as 90 percent lost to long shots. Those outcomes put the gap between strong market confidence and electoral certainty in focus.

A high implied probability is not a guarantee. The reported upsets raise questions about forecasting performance, but the examples alone do not establish whether prediction markets systematically overstate favorites’ chances.

Israel disagreement persists

Kalshi and Polymarket traders still disagree on who will become the next Israeli prime minister three days after polls closed, according to the Journal. That divergence leaves the two platforms without a shared signal even after voting has ended.

The scrutiny comes as Polymarket offers some 4,300 political markets heading into Tuesday’s midterms, the Journal says. The breadth of that offering makes the coming elections a substantial test of how market expectations compare with results.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Confidence is not certainty: The reported losses by candidates assigned chances as high as 90 percent underscore that heavily favored outcomes can fail to materialize.
  • Platforms can diverge: The continuing Kalshi–Polymarket disagreement over Israel’s next prime minister shows that traders on different venues need not reach the same assessment.
  • Accuracy requires broader evidence: The highlighted upsets warrant scrutiny, but assessing reliability requires more than a selection of surprising results.
  • Midterms expand the test: With some 4,300 political markets on Polymarket, Tuesday’s elections put a broad set of expectations under examination.
KalshiPolymarketMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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