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Polymarket traders favor November WTI decline to $90 as volume builds

Polymarket's November WTI crude oil ladder assigns an 88 percent chance to oil falling to 90 dollars during the month, with about 1 million dollars in total volume and about 207,000 dollars traded today. The contract is part of Polymarket's November commodity board, which also lists gold and Bitcoin price ladders running to December 1.

According to Polymarket, its November WTI crude oil price ladder assigns an 88 percent probability to oil falling to $90 during the month. The figures were published on Nov 4, 2026, at 12:30 PM ET.

Trading activity and scope

Total volume across the November WTI ladder stands at about $1 million, according to Polymarket. About $207,000 was traded today. Those figures describe activity in the ladder, rather than volume attributed specifically to the $90 outcome.

The 88 percent reading concerns whether oil falls to $90 during November. It should not be read as a forecast that WTI will finish the month at that price.

Other price ladders

The WTI contract forms part of Polymarket’s November commodity board. According to Polymarket, that board also includes gold and Bitcoin price ladders running to December 1.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The $90 WTI outcome carries a high implied probability at 88 percent, but that pricing does not make the outcome certain.
  • About $1 million in total ladder volume and about $207,000 traded today provide activity context, not a measure of trading concentrated in the $90 outcome.
  • Timing matters: the WTI outcome concerns a price move during November, while the listed gold and Bitcoin ladders run to December 1.
PolymarketBitcoinGoldOilInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Polymarketpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
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