Terminal
Infiniti Feed

January Fed hold leads both venues as December hike pricing aligns

With December hike pricing already near convergence, the January 2027 Fed meeting market has no change as the clear favorite on both venues, at 77 cents on Kalshi and 80 cents on Polymarket.

The January 2027 Fed meeting markets favor no change, with that outcome priced at 77 cents on Kalshi and 80 cents on Polymarket, according to WinDailySports.

The pricing snapshot was published on Nov 4, 2026 at 1:45 PM ET. Both venues make an unchanged decision the clear favorite, though their prices differ.

January hold pricing shows a modest gap

Polymarket’s no-change contract sits 3 cents above Kalshi’s. The two venues therefore point toward the same leading outcome without assigning it an identical price.

According to WinDailySports, pricing for a December hike is already close to converging across the venues. The supplied summary does not include December contract prices or prices for alternative January outcomes, limiting a fuller comparison of the two meetings.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Shared favorite: No change leads January 2027 Fed decision pricing on both Kalshi and Polymarket; that market preference is not a confirmed policy outcome.
  • Cross-venue difference: The 77-cent and 80-cent prices leave a 3-cent gap for the same stated outcome.
  • Limited December comparison: December hike pricing is described as nearly converged, but the available figures do not establish how its gap compares numerically with January’s.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    WinDailySports
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to WinDailySports”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related