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Polymarket loses share as US venue revises trader incentives

Gaming America reports Polymarket US filed nine CFTC amendments between October 2 and October 26 covering seven deposit, rebate and referral programs as Kalshi extended its lead; measured by cash actually paid rather than face value, Polymarket's two venues took 20.1 percent of volume across nine tracked venues.

Polymarket’s combined market share declined to 17.2 percent in the 30 days before October 29, according to Gaming America, as Polymarket US revised its trader incentive programs and Kalshi widened its lead.

Incentive changes span seven programs

Polymarket US filed nine CFTC amendments between October 2 and October 26, Gaming America reported. The filings covered seven programs involving deposits, rebates and referrals.

The changes place trader incentives alongside market share as a focus for readers tracking competition between prediction-market venues. The supplied reporting does not establish that the program revisions caused the decline in Polymarket’s share.

Measurement changes the picture

A separate calculation based on cash actually paid, rather than face value, put Polymarket’s two venues at 20.1 percent of volume across nine tracked venues, according to Gaming America.

That figure offers a different perspective from the reported 17.2 percent combined market share. The distinction matters when comparing venue activity: the measurement basis needs to be clear before the figures can be interpreted together.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume definitions matter: Polymarket’s reported share differs between the headline measure and the cash-paid calculation, which covers nine tracked venues.
  • Incentives are changing: Nine CFTC amendments across seven programs document revisions to Polymarket US’s deposit, rebate and referral offerings.
  • Competition remains central: Gaming America reported that Kalshi extended its lead, but the supplied material does not quantify that lead or isolate the effect of Polymarket US’s incentive changes.
KalshiPolymarketCFTCInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Gaming America
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