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Polymarket assigns 98.8 percent probability to November Bank of England hike

PredictionBubbles lists the contract among the nearest resolution deadlines in the prediction-market universe, at 98.8 percent, up 0.4 points, on 175,000 dollars traded, with about a day and a half left before it resolves.

Polymarket’s contract on a Bank of England rate increase of 25 basis points after its November 2026 meeting stood at 98.8 percent, according to PredictionBubbles.

The update, published Nov 4, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET, put the contract’s gain at 0.4 points, with 175,000 dollars traded.

Resolution draws near

PredictionBubbles placed the contract among the prediction-market universe’s nearest resolution deadlines. About a day and a half remained before resolution at the time of the update.

The pricing indicates a heavily concentrated expectation for the specified increase, rather than a confirmed policy outcome. The supplied summary does not include the contract’s detailed settlement criteria or an explanation for the price move.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Strongly one-sided pricing: At 98.8 percent, the contract assigns a very high probability to the specified 25-basis-point increase.
  • Limited time remaining: The roughly day-and-a-half resolution window makes the timing of the outcome central to this market.
  • Trading context is incomplete: The 175,000 dollars traded provides an activity measure, but the summary gives no order-book depth or bid–ask spread with which to assess liquidity.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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