Peltola leads Alaska count as markets price in Democratic victory
Action Network reports the Alaska Senate market had 15,258,615 dollars in volume on Kalshi, where the Democratic contract for Mary Peltola sits at 88 cents, up 18 points as the count turned her way. Peltola leads Dan Sullivan 102,701 to 102,075 with 74.3 percent of votes counted, and the market may not resolve until the ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18, with certification targeted for November 25.
Mary Peltola holds a 626-vote lead over Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s unsettled Senate race, with prediction markets favoring the Democrat. According to Action Network, her contract stands at 87 cents on Polymarket and 88 cents on Kalshi.
A narrow lead, a stronger market price
Peltola has 102,701 votes to Sullivan’s 102,075, with 74.3 percent of votes counted, according to Action Network. The figures were reported on Nov 4, 2026, at 10:45 AM ET.
Kalshi’s Alaska Senate market has recorded $15,258,615 in volume. Its Democratic contract for Peltola rose 18 points as the count shifted in her favor, reaching 88 cents.
Resolution could await ranked-choice counting
Despite those prices, the result remains unsettled. According to Action Network, the market may remain unresolved until the ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18.
Certification is targeted for November 25. That leaves the current vote lead, the scheduled tabulation and the certification target as distinct milestones for readers tracking the outcome.
What it means for prediction markets
- Prices of 87 cents on Polymarket and 88 cents on Kalshi favor Peltola, but do not represent a settled result.
- The 626-vote margin comes with 74.3 percent counted, making further count updates important to the market’s assessment.
- November 18 is the scheduled ranked-choice tabulation date; November 25 is the certification target. Market resolution may therefore lag the initial count.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- Action Networkactionnetwork.com
- Publisher
- https://www.actionnetwork.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Action Network”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- Mississippi's Senate market moves to Scott Colom at 92c on Kalshi, on $9.3M traded in 24 hours, as the count stays uncalled
- New York court filing challenges Kalshi advertising and its claims about how the exchange operates, Deadspin reports
- Polymarket top 50 traders show 339 million dollars in volume and 24.1 million dollars in net profit, led by googleplayB at 1.2 million dollars, Merlin reports
- Polymarket and Kalshi prices average just 0.9 points apart across 50 matched outcomes, with the widest gap at 5 points on the 2028 presidential party market, PolymarketTrader reports
- Bitcoin finished up in just 48 percent of its last 1,285 fifteen-minute Kalshi windows over 14 days, DeFi Rate reports
- CFTC sues Utah to block its enforcement action against Kalshi and other federally regulated prediction markets, VitalLaw reports