December Fed hike leads across venues, with hold odds diverging
PredictionMarketPicks reports the December 8-9, 2026 FOMC decision market on Kalshi splits about 79 percent for a 25 basis point hike, 23 percent for a hold and 1 percent for a cut, updated November 4 at 7:00 AM EST. Across the three venues pricing the same meeting, the widest disagreement is 7.1 points on the hold outcome between fed funds futures and Kalshi, and the board refreshes every 30 minutes as new inflation and jobs data lands.
According to PredictionMarketPicks, a rate increase leads pricing for the December 8-9, 2026 FOMC decision across Kalshi, Polymarket and fed funds futures. The hike outcome stands at about 79 percent on Kalshi, compared with 77.5 percent on Polymarket and 84.5 percent in fed funds futures.
Kalshi’s outcome breakdown
Kalshi’s market assigns about 79 percent to a 25 basis point hike, 23 percent to unchanged rates and 1 percent to a cut, according to PredictionMarketPicks. Those figures reflect an update on November 4 at 7:00 AM EST.
The report was published Nov 4, 2026, at 10:45 AM ET. The quoted market readings therefore represent an earlier snapshot rather than prices at publication.
Hold pricing shows the largest gap
Among the three venues covering the same meeting, the largest reported difference is 7.1 percentage points between fed funds futures and Kalshi on the hold outcome. PredictionMarketPicks says its comparison board updates every 30 minutes as new inflation and jobs data arrives.
What it means for prediction markets
- Direction is consistent, pricing is not: All three venues favor a hike, but fed funds futures assign it the highest probability and Polymarket the lowest.
- The hold outcome deserves attention: The reported 7.1-point gap is the widest cross-venue disagreement, even though a hike remains the leading outcome.
- Timing matters: The figures are tied to the November 4, 7:00 AM EST update; the board’s 30-minute refresh cycle can produce subsequent changes.
Sources & attribution
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