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Gold’s $4,500 December target draws even odds on Polymarket

Polymarket reports its most active gold market, on what gold will hit by the end of December, assigns a 50 percent chance to gold reaching 4,500 dollars. Its November gold ladder separately assigns an 81 percent chance to gold reaching 4,100 dollars during the month, on 58,100 dollars in volume.

Polymarket’s most active gold market assigns a 50 percent probability to gold reaching $4,500 by the end of December, according to Polymarket. The figures were reported on Nov 4, 2026, at 1:15 PM ET.

The contract concerns the level gold will reach before that deadline, rather than its price at the end of December. The reported probability places the $4,500 outcome at even odds.

November ladder shows stronger odds for a lower threshold

A separate November gold ladder assigns an 81 percent probability to gold reaching $4,100 during the month, according to Polymarket. That market has recorded $58,100 in volume.

The two readings cover different price thresholds and time windows. The November probability therefore cannot be treated as a direct counterpart to the December figure: it concerns a lower target over a shorter period.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Thresholds and deadlines matter: The 50 percent reading applies to $4,500 by the end of December; the 81 percent reading applies to $4,100 during November.
  • Reaching is not closing: Both reported outcomes concern whether gold hits a level, not whether it finishes the period there.
  • Activity data are limited: Polymarket identifies the December market as its most active gold market, but the supplied volume figure of $58,100 applies only to the November ladder.
PolymarketGoldInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Polymarketpolymarket.com
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    https://polymarket.com
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