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Polymarket traders put crude oil record odds at 29 percent

Polymarket reports it currently hosts 500 active commodities markets, including contracts on what WTI crude oil will hit in November 2026. Its most active commodities market is Crude Oil all time high by, where the crowd assigns a 29 percent chance to March 31, 2027.

Polymarket currently lists 500 active commodities markets, according to Polymarket. The platform’s reported offerings include contracts tied to WTI crude oil price levels in November 2026.

Oil contracts draw attention

According to Polymarket, its most active commodities market asks whether crude oil will reach an all-time high by specified deadlines. The March 31, 2027 outcome carries a crowd-implied probability of 29 percent.

That pricing places a new record by that deadline below an even chance. It is a market assessment, not confirmation of where crude oil prices will trade.

A limited snapshot

The update, published Nov 1, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET, provides a count of active commodities markets and identifies the leading contract by activity. It does not supply trading-volume figures or earlier probabilities against which to measure changes.

The summary also gives no price thresholds for the November 2026 WTI contracts or detailed settlement criteria for the all-time-high market. Those omissions limit comparisons between the shorter-term price contracts and the record-high outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Deadline matters: The 29 percent probability applies to March 31, 2027, not simply to whether crude oil eventually reaches a record.
  • Breadth is not liquidity: The 500 active markets establish the size of Polymarket’s commodities offering, but the supplied information does not quantify trading depth.
  • No trend is established: Without earlier pricing, the snapshot cannot show whether traders have become more or less confident in a crude oil record.
PolymarketOilInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Polymarketpolymarket.com
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    https://polymarket.com
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