Bitcoin direction odds climb as Polymarket traders heavily favor Up
PolymarketTrader's Bitcoin board, updated November 1, prices the Up outcome in the Bitcoin up or down on November 1 market at 82.5 percent, up 32 points, with 102,400 dollars traded. The same board prices Bitcoin above 70,000 dollars on November 1 at 99.9 percent or higher, with 1.01 million dollars traded on that market.
According to PolymarketTrader’s Bitcoin board, updated November 1, the Up outcome in Polymarket’s Bitcoin up or down on November 1 market was priced at 82.5 percent, an increase of 32 points.
The update, published Nov 1, 2026 · 2:15 PM ET, listed 102,400 dollars traded in that market.
Direction and threshold markets show different pricing
The same board priced Bitcoin above 70,000 dollars on November 1 at 99.9 percent or higher, according to PolymarketTrader. That market had recorded 1.01 million dollars traded.
The two contracts address different questions: whether Bitcoin moves up or down, and whether it is above a specified price. The threshold outcome carried both a higher quoted probability and a larger traded total than the Up outcome.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 32-point increase marks a substantial shift toward Up, but the supplied summary does not specify the period over which that change occurred.
- Pricing of 99.9 percent or higher indicates a heavily favored threshold outcome, not a confirmed result.
- The summary provides neither contract’s settlement criteria, limiting direct comparisons between their quoted probabilities.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
- Publisher
- https://polymarket.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to PolymarketTrader”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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