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World Cup price differences fuel arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket

DailyCryptoNews reports Kalshi and Polymarket combined for roughly 19 billion dollars in notional trading volume over the World Cup, and traders profited by arbitraging price gaps between the two venues, such as a United States tournament win priced at 4.3 percent on Kalshi against 3 percent on Polymarket before the round of 16. Combined monthly volume across the platforms reached 44.8 billion dollars in June, up 75 percent from May.

Kalshi and Polymarket together recorded roughly 19 billion dollars in notional World Cup trading volume, according to DailyCryptoNews. The outlet reported that traders profited from differences in the two platforms’ prices during the tournament.

One outcome, different prices

Before the round of 16, a United States tournament victory was priced at 4.3 percent on Kalshi, compared with 3 percent on Polymarket, according to DailyCryptoNews. That put the same headline outcome 1.3 percentage points apart across the venues.

The example illustrates the price discrepancies behind the reported arbitrage activity. The supplied summary does not specify traders’ execution costs, position sizes or realized profits.

Tournament activity amid broader volume growth

Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached 44.8 billion dollars in June, DailyCryptoNews reported. That was an increase of 75 percent from May.

The June figure covers combined platform volume, while the roughly 19 billion dollars refers specifically to notional trading over the World Cup. They describe different measures of activity and should not be treated as interchangeable.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Prices differed across venues: The United States example shows that a tournament outcome could carry materially different implied probabilities on Kalshi and Polymarket.
  • Reported profits lack execution detail: DailyCryptoNews reported successful arbitrage, but the summary does not establish how much of the quoted price difference traders retained.
  • Volume needs context: Tournament notional volume and combined monthly platform volume offer distinct perspectives on market activity; neither figure alone establishes profitability.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    DailyCryptoNews
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