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Kalshi and Polymarket US diverge on odds of Bitcoin decline

DeFi Rate reports the live 15-minute Bitcoin market for the window closing at 3:30 PM ET on November 1 sets a price to beat of 77,670.98 dollars, with Kalshi pricing a down finish at 95 percent and Polymarket US at 89 percent. Both venues settle the 15-minute contracts on the CF Benchmarks index.

According to DeFi Rate, live pricing for Bitcoin’s 15-minute market closing at 3:30 PM ET on November 1, 2026 favored a down finish on both Kalshi and Polymarket US.

The price to beat was $77,670.98. Kalshi priced a down finish at 95 percent, compared with 89 percent on Polymarket US.

Shared benchmark, different pricing

That left a 6-percentage-point gap between the venues. Both prices strongly favored the same direction, but Kalshi assigned a higher probability to a down finish.

Both venues settle their 15-minute contracts using the CF Benchmarks index, according to DeFi Rate. The reported pricing difference therefore existed despite a shared settlement benchmark.

Timing of the snapshot

DeFi Rate’s report was published on November 1, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET, after the stated 3:30 PM ET closing time. The supplied summary describes live market pricing for that window, not a confirmed settlement result.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Directional agreement: Both venues favored a down finish relative to $77,670.98, with prices of 95 percent on Kalshi and 89 percent on Polymarket US.
  • Cross-venue difference: The 6-percentage-point spread shows differing market-implied probabilities despite use of the same CF Benchmarks settlement index.
  • Outcome remains unconfirmed here: The supplied material provides pricing, but no final index reading or contract resolution.
KalshiPolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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