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Bass leads Raman in mayoral betting as Los Angeles runoff nears

DeFi Rate reports the Los Angeles mayoral runoff market averages Karen Bass at 57 percent across Kalshi at 58 percent, Polymarket at 57 percent and Gemini at 57 percent, with Nithya Raman at 43 percent and 91,000 dollars in combined 24-hour volume. Bass is up 13 points this week on Kalshi, and trading closes around the November 3 vote.

Karen Bass holds a 57 percent average market probability against Nithya Raman’s 43 percent ahead of the November 3 Los Angeles mayoral runoff, according to DeFi Rate.

Platforms price a similar race

DeFi Rate’s November 1, 2026 update, published at 3:45 PM ET, puts Bass at 58 percent on Kalshi and 57 percent on both Polymarket and Gemini. The reported average across those platforms is 57 percent.

Combined trading volume over 24 hours totals $91,000, according to DeFi Rate. That figure covers the platforms collectively; the supplied summary does not break out activity by venue.

Bass gains ahead of the vote

Bass’s Kalshi probability has risen 13 points this week, DeFi Rate reports. That weekly movement is specific to Kalshi, rather than a reported change in the cross-platform average.

Trading closes around the November 3 vote. With Bass favored but Raman still priced at 43 percent, the reported market probabilities leave room for either candidate to win.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Close pricing across venues: Bass’s probabilities range from 57 percent to 58 percent across Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini.
  • A platform-specific shift: The 13-point weekly increase shows movement toward Bass on Kalshi; no comparable weekly figures were supplied for the other platforms.
  • An approaching endpoint: Trading closes around November 3, making the vote the immediate event to watch. The probabilities reflect market pricing, not a confirmed election outcome.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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