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Kalshi’s midterm favorites prevailed in 479 races by early Wednesday

Kalshi's midterm recap says the favored candidate won in 479 of the 487 races resolved by 6:00 AM ET on November 4, including 94 percent of Senate races and 95 percent of House races. Its highest-volume House market was TX-15, where traders favored the Democrat as early as March 2026 in a district Donald Trump won by 18 points in 2024.

Kalshi traders favored the eventual winner in 479 of 487 midterm races resolved by 6:00 AM ET on November 4, according to Kalshi News. The platform’s recap put that hit rate at 98 percent.

Results across congressional markets

The recap said favored candidates won 94 percent of Senate races and 95 percent of House races. Those figures describe how often the market favorite prevailed, rather than how closely individual contract probabilities matched outcomes.

The tally covers races resolved by the stated cutoff, not necessarily the full midterm election slate. Kalshi News published the recap on Nov 4, 2026, at 11:45 AM ET.

TX-15 drew the most House trading

TX-15 was Kalshi’s highest-volume House market, according to Kalshi News. Traders favored the Democrat there as early as March 2026.

That positioning contrasted with the district’s 2024 presidential result: Donald Trump won it by 18 points. The supplied recap does not specify the Democrat’s market probability or provide a trading-volume figure for TX-15.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A strong favorite-win record: The 479-of-487 result measures how often favorites won among resolved races; it does not establish the accuracy of every quoted probability.
  • The cutoff matters: The 98 percent figure applies to races resolved by 6:00 AM ET on November 4, rather than an explicitly complete election tally.
  • TX-15 offers a timing signal: Traders favored the Democrat as early as March 2026 despite Trump’s 18-point district victory in 2024, though the supplied material does not quantify that market’s confidence.
KalshiSenateMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Kalshi Newsnews.kalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://news.kalshi.com
    Source URL
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