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Abbott retains Texas market lead as prices fall across both venues

Greg Abbott leads the 2026 Texas governor market at 62 cents on Polymarket and 64 cents on Kalshi, with Gina Hinojosa next at 39 cents and 37 cents. Both Abbott prices are down from 67 cents on each venue seven days earlier, and Polymarket is currently the cheaper venue to buy.

Greg Abbott leads the 2026 Texas governor markets at 62 cents on Polymarket and 64 cents on Kalshi, according to WinDailySports. The figures were published Nov 4, 2026, at 11:45 AM ET.

Abbott’s lead comes with lower prices

Gina Hinojosa is next at 39 cents on Polymarket and 37 cents on Kalshi. Both venues therefore place Abbott ahead, though the price gap between the candidates is wider on Kalshi.

Abbott traded at 67 cents on each platform seven days earlier. His current prices represent declines of 5 cents on Polymarket and 3 cents on Kalshi over that period.

A two-cent difference between venues

Polymarket currently offers the lower quoted price for Abbott, at 2 cents below Kalshi. The venue comparison runs in the opposite direction for Hinojosa, whose Kalshi price is 2 cents lower than her Polymarket price.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Leadership and momentum differ: Abbott remains ahead on both platforms, but his price has declined on each over the past seven days.
  • Venue pricing has diverged: Abbott’s prices were identical at 67 cents seven days earlier; Kalshi now prices him 2 cents above Polymarket.
  • The quotes provide a limited snapshot: The supplied reporting does not include trading volume, liquidity or an explanation for the price moves.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    WinDailySports
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