Cross-platform odds diverge most on Republican prospects for 2028
PolymarketTrader reports that across 10 events listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi on November 3, covering 54 matched outcomes, the average price gap between the two venues is 1.2 percentage points. The widest gap is on Republicans to win the 2028 presidential election, at 32.5 percent on Polymarket against 40.5 percent on Kalshi, while the December Fed decision is priced identically for a 25 basis point hike at 72.5 percent on both.
A comparison of Polymarket and Kalshi prices found an average difference of 1.2 percentage points across 54 matched outcomes, according to PolymarketTrader. The snapshot covered 10 events available on both platforms on November 3.
The report, published on Nov 3, 2026 at 9:15 AM ET, shows a modest average gap alongside a larger difference in one presidential election outcome.
Presidential pricing shows the largest split
The widest difference concerned Republicans winning the 2028 presidential election. Polymarket priced that outcome at 32.5 percent, compared with 40.5 percent on Kalshi, according to PolymarketTrader.
That puts the Kalshi price 8 percentage points above Polymarket’s. The overall average therefore masks a substantially larger disagreement on this particular outcome.
December Fed outcome matches
By contrast, the platforms had identical prices for a 25 basis point hike at the December Fed decision. That outcome stood at 72.5 percent on both venues, according to PolymarketTrader.
The comparison captures prices at a particular point in time. The supplied summary does not explain the differences or establish whether they persisted.
What it means for prediction markets
- Outcome-level differences matter: The 1.2 percentage point average does not describe every matched outcome, as the 8 percentage point presidential gap illustrates.
- Agreement varies by event: Identical pricing for the December Fed hike contrasts with the split over a Republican presidential victory in 2028.
- The snapshot has limits: These figures describe 54 matched outcomes across 10 shared events, not the platforms’ entire markets or their relative forecasting accuracy.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
- Publisher
- https://polymarket.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to PolymarketTrader”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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