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Jackson leads Maine Senate pricing as simulation favors Democratic control

PredictionMarketsPicks reports Jackson trades at 74.4 cents on both Kalshi and Polymarket US in the Maine Senate race against Susan Collins, the same price on each venue after fees in its November 3 update. Its 10,000-run simulation using Kalshi race prices gave Democrats and independents Senate control in 76.7 percent of outcomes.

Troy Jackson traded at 74.4 cents on both Kalshi and Polymarket US in the Maine Senate race against Susan Collins, according to PredictionMarketsPicks.

The update, published Nov 3, 2026 · 10:30 AM ET, put Jackson at the same price on each venue after fees.

Maine pricing and the Senate simulation

The matching prices provide a consistent snapshot across the two venues. The supplied summary does not include earlier prices, so it does not establish whether Jackson’s market position had changed.

PredictionMarketsPicks also conducted a 10,000-run simulation using Kalshi race prices. Democrats and independents secured Senate control in 76.7 percent of those outcomes.

That result is a simulation output based on market inputs, distinct from Jackson’s individual contract price. The supplied summary does not describe the simulation’s assumptions or how it handled relationships among races.

What it means for prediction markets

  • No reported pricing gap: Jackson’s 74.4-cent price was identical on Kalshi and Polymarket US after fees in the November 3 update.
  • Different measures: The Maine price concerns Jackson’s race against Susan Collins; the 76.7 percent figure concerns Senate control across simulated outcomes.
  • Limited trend evidence: Without prior prices or further methodological detail, the snapshot cannot establish momentum or the simulation’s sensitivity to its assumptions.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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