Georgia markets favor Bottoms despite tied poll, price Ossoff near certainty

According to Action Network’s Nov 3, 2026, 10:30 AM ET report, Keisha Lance Bottoms trades at 68 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi in the Georgia governor race. Those prices favor Bottoms even though the final InsiderAdvantage poll showed a tie.

Governor contracts diverge from the polling picture

Rick Jackson trades at 33 cents on Polymarket and 34 cents on Kalshi, according to Action Network. The two venues thus show a similar gap between the candidates.

The final InsiderAdvantage poll put both candidates at 49 percent. That leaves a contrast between an evenly divided polling result and market prices that assign Bottoms the stronger position. The supplied reporting does not explain the difference.

Senate prices show a stronger favorite

In the Senate race, Jon Ossoff trades at 97 cents on Polymarket and 96.6 cents on Kalshi, according to Action Network. Mike Collins trades at 4 cents and 3.9 cents, respectively.

The final InsiderAdvantage poll showed Ossoff ahead by 7 points. Unlike the governor contest, the Senate polling and contract prices point toward the same leader, although they measure different things: a polling margin is not a probability of victory.

What it means for prediction markets

• Governor uncertainty: Bottoms’ 68-cent price on both venues stands alongside a 49 percent–49 percent poll, making the distinction between market expectations and measured voter support particularly relevant.
• Senate confidence: Ossoff’s 97-cent and 96.6-cent contracts reflect a much more decisive market assessment than Bottoms’ prices, but neither amounts to a guaranteed outcome.
• Cross-venue comparison: Prices are closely aligned across Polymarket and Kalshi in both races; the larger contrast is between the two contests, rather than between platforms.