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Sports and crypto eclipse politics as prediction market trading expands

ZeroHedge, citing a Bloomberg report, says political betting on Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for just 1 percent of trading in October, down from two-thirds during the 2024 presidential election, even as overall trading across both platforms has increased more than twentyfold since October 2024. Election-related turnover on Kalshi was roughly unchanged in the final week before the midterms compared with the same period in 2024, while Polymarket's election volume fell significantly as sports and crypto trading boomed.

Political contracts accounted for just 1 percent of October trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, compared with two-thirds during the 2024 presidential election, according to Bloomberg reporting cited by ZeroHedge.

The shift came as total trading across the two platforms increased more than twentyfold since October 2024. Politics therefore represents a much smaller portion of a substantially larger market.

Election activity diverges between platforms

Kalshi’s election-related turnover in the final week before the midterms was roughly unchanged from the comparable period in 2024, according to the reporting. Its declining political share did not coincide with a similar decline in election turnover over that comparison window.

Polymarket, by contrast, recorded a significant fall in election volume. Sports and crypto trading boomed as the platforms’ overall trading mix moved away from politics.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Trading share and turnover tell different stories. The fall to 1 percent shows politics’ reduced relative weight, while Kalshi’s roughly unchanged election turnover highlights the distinction between market share and absolute activity.
  • Platform differences matter. Kalshi’s steady election-related turnover and Polymarket’s significant decline mean the combined political share masks different underlying trends.
  • Overall growth is not a proxy for election interest. Trading increased more than twentyfold since October 2024, but the reported election figures did not show comparable expansion.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    ZeroHedge
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  2. Source 2
    Bloomberg data via ZeroHedge
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