Kalshi profitability forecast puts sports contract legality in focus
SCCG reports PitchBook forecasts Kalshi adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion dollars for 2026, ahead of DraftKings guidance, with Polymarket projected at 34.9 million dollars in EBITDA on 842 million dollars in revenue. The report values Kalshi at 42.3 billion dollars and Polymarket at 20.6 billion dollars, with both cases tied to sports contracts remaining legal.
Forecasts show a wide earnings gap
PitchBook forecasts Kalshi will generate adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion dollars for 2026 on gross revenue of 3.7 billion dollars, according to SCCG. The projected earnings figure is ahead of DraftKings guidance.
The same reporting puts Polymarket’s projected EBITDA at 34.9 million dollars on revenue of 842 million dollars. The supplied figures use different labels: Kalshi’s earnings measure is adjusted EBITDA and its top line is gross revenue, while Polymarket’s are described as EBITDA and revenue.
Valuations depend on sports contracts
According to SCCG, the report values Kalshi at 42.3 billion dollars and Polymarket at 20.6 billion dollars. These are report valuations, distinct from the operating forecasts.
Both valuation cases depend on sports contracts remaining legal. That condition makes the legal status of those contracts central to interpreting the estimates, rather than a separate consideration.
What it means for prediction markets
- Forecasts are not results: Kalshi’s 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate and Polymarket’s projected EBITDA describe expected performance, not realized earnings.
- Comparisons require care: The differing revenue and EBITDA labels limit a straightforward comparison between the platforms.
- Legality is a core assumption: Readers assessing the valuations should distinguish the financial projections from the condition that sports contracts remain legal.
Sources & attribution
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