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Palantir downside probability rises sharply in Polymarket’s November stock contracts

PolymarketTrader reports across 172 live Polymarket stocks and earnings markets updated on November 3 that the market on what Palantir will hit in November prices a fall to 174 dollars at 93 percent, up 29 points, with 27,500 dollars traded in 24 hours. Apple weekly pricing shows a fall to 332 dollars at 67.5 percent, up 24.5 points, and the S&P 500 November market prices a fall to 750 dollars at 88.5 percent.

Polymarket’s market on what Palantir will hit in November assigned a 93 percent probability to a fall to 174 dollars, according to PolymarketTrader. That marked an increase of 29 points, with 27,500 dollars traded over 24 hours.

Stock-price probabilities move higher for declines

The figures came from PolymarketTrader’s update covering 172 live Polymarket stocks and earnings markets on November 3. The report was published on Nov 3, 2026, at 9:00 AM ET.

Apple’s weekly pricing market put the probability of a fall to 332 dollars at 67.5 percent, an increase of 24.5 points, according to the same outlet. Its weekly timeframe differs from the November window specified for Palantir.

The S&P 500 November market assigned an 88.5 percent probability to a fall to 750 dollars. The supplied summary did not give a probability change or trading volume for that contract.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Palantir’s 29-point increase brought its reported downside probability to 93 percent, above the probabilities cited for Apple and the S&P 500.
  • The contracts cover different timeframes and thresholds, so their probabilities do not provide a direct comparison of expected price declines.
  • Palantir’s 27,500 dollars in 24-hour trading provides activity context, but the summary offers no comparable volume figures for the other two markets.
  • These figures describe market pricing, not confirmed price outcomes; the summary does not include full contract resolution terms.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
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    https://polymarket.com
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